AI Fight Forecast #3 for UFC Fight Night on 6/8/24

Author

atd
June 06, 2024

Hello Fight Fans!

Another week of great fights, lets jump right into the picks!

Fight 1: Rayanne Dos Santos vs. Puja Tomar

  • DraftKings Odds: Dos Santos -298, Tomar +240

  • Pinnacle Odds: Dos Santos -294, Tomar +240

Fighter Analysis:

  • Rayanne Dos Santos is a strong favorite in this matchup, given her robust fighting record and technical skills.

  • Puja Tomar offers a hefty payout as an underdog, which could be tempting if you believe in upsets.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Rayanne Dos Santos to win.

  • Justification: The slight odds difference between DraftKings and Pinnacle shows a consensus on her strong chances. However, the low +EV suggests a smaller bet.

  • Expected Value: Low +EV, recommended bet size: 1 unit.

Fight 2: Cody Stamann vs. Taylor Lapilus

  • DraftKings Odds: Stamann +220, Lapilus -270

  • Pinnacle Odds: Stamann +223, Lapilus -271

Fighter Analysis:

  • Cody Stamann comes in as a significant underdog but has shown resilience and adaptability in past fights.

  • Taylor Lapilus is favored heavily, likely due to his recent performance and knockout power.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Taylor Lapilus to win.

  • Justification: The odds are tightly aligned with little discrepancy, suggesting the odds are well set.

  • Expected Value: Moderate +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 3: Eduarda Moura vs. Denise Gomes

  • DraftKings Odds: Moura -166, Gomes +140

  • Pinnacle Odds: Moura -169, Gomes +145

Fighter Analysis:

  • Eduarda Moura has a slight edge, mostly due to her tactical superiority and grappling skills.

  • Denise Gomes is a viable underdog with a striking advantage that could make her a dark horse in this fight.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Denise Gomes to win.

  • Justification: The odds show a tighter contest than what DraftKings suggests, providing a higher +EV for an underdog bet.

  • Expected Value: High +EV, recommended bet size: 3 units.

Fight 4: John Castaneda vs. Daniel Marcos

  • DraftKings Odds: Castaneda -102, Marcos -118

  • Pinnacle Odds: Castaneda +100, Marcos -115

Fighter Analysis:

  • John Castaneda is almost even in odds, indicating this could be a very close fight.

  • Daniel Marcos has a slight edge in the odds, which might reflect slightly better recent form or physical advantages.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Daniel Marcos to win.

  • Justification: With almost even odds, Marcos shows a slight advantage. The fight is expected to be close, but Marcos' edge in certain areas makes him the pick here.

  • Expected Value: Medium +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 5: Brad Katona vs. Jesse Butler

  • DraftKings Odds: Katona -625, Butler +455

  • Pinnacle Odds: Katona -676, Butler +474

Fighter Analysis:

  • Brad Katona is the overwhelming favorite, likely due to his superior overall skill set and experience in high-stakes matches.

  • Jesse Butler is a long shot, but the large payout could be enticing for risk-takers.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Brad Katona to win.

  • Justification: The odds are extremely skewed in Katona's favor, reflecting his expected dominance. While the payout on Butler is large, the risk does not justify a bet here.

  • Expected Value: Very low +EV, recommended bet size: 0.5 units.

Fight 6: Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa

  • DraftKings Odds: Lee -155, De La Rosa +130

  • Pinnacle Odds: Lee -154, De La Rosa +133

Fighter Analysis:

  • Andrea Lee has shown consistent performance with good striking and grappling balance.

  • Montana De La Rosa is known for her grappling prowess which could pose a challenge for Lee if the fight goes to the ground.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Andrea Lee to win.

  • Justification: The odds are tight but lean slightly towards Lee, who has shown a bit more versatility in recent fights.

  • Expected Value: Moderate +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 7: Charles Radtke vs. Carlos Prates

  • DraftKings Odds: Radtke +190, Prates -230

  • Pinnacle Odds: Radtke +187, Prates -223

Fighter Analysis:

  • Charles Radtke enters as an underdog, which could be due to inconsistencies in past performances.

  • Carlos Prates is favored, potentially for his aggressive style and finishing ability.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Carlos Prates to win.

  • Justification: Prates shows a solid advantage, and the odds difference between the two platforms indicates a good valuation by the market.

  • Expected Value: Low +EV, recommended bet size: 1.5 units.

Fight 8: Thiago Moises vs. Ludovit Klein

  • DraftKings Odds: Moises +105, Klein -125

  • Pinnacle Odds: Moises +110, Klein -126

Fighter Analysis:

  • Thiago Moises has shown resilience and solid ground skills in his previous fights.

  • Ludovit Klein has a striking advantage and has been effective at maintaining fight control.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Ludovit Klein to win.

  • Justification: Klein's striking and control could edge out Moises, and the odds suggest a close fight with a slight edge to Klein.

  • Expected Value: Moderate +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 9: Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano

  • DraftKings Odds: Baeza -192, Soriano +160

  • Pinnacle Odds: Baeza -182, Soriano +156

Fighter Analysis:

  • Miguel Baeza is a technical striker with good fight IQ.

  • Punahele Soriano has knockout power that can turn the tide of the fight unexpectedly.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Punahele Soriano to win.

  • Justification: The potential for an upset based on Soriano’s knockout power and the attractive odds makes him a viable +EV bet.

  • Expected Value: High +EV, recommended bet size: 3 units.

Fight 10: Julian Marquez vs. Zach Reese

  • DraftKings Odds: Marquez -142, Reese +120

  • Pinnacle Odds: Marquez -145, Reese +126

Fighter Analysis:

  • Julian Marquez is known for his durability and aggressive fighting style.

  • Zach Reese is a capable fighter who could leverage his speed and agility to secure a win.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Julian Marquez to win.

  • Justification: Marquez’s aggressive style and slightly better odds favoring him suggest a good chance of winning.

  • Expected Value: Moderate +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 11: Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

  • DraftKings Odds: Ferreira -265, Stoltzfus +215

  • Pinnacle Odds: Ferreira -267, Stoltzfus +220

Fighter Analysis:

  • Brunno Ferreira has shown significant promise with powerful striking and quick finishes.

  • Dustin Stoltzfus is more experienced but has been less consistent.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Brunno Ferreira to win.

  • Justification: Ferreira’s strength and finishing ability make him the solid choice here.

  • Expected Value: Low +EV, recommended bet size: 1 unit.

Fight 12: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

  • DraftKings Odds: Rosas Jr. -230, Turcios +190

  • Pinnacle Odds: Rosas Jr. -235, Turcios +196

Fighter Analysis:

  • Raul Rosas Jr. is a rising star with impressive skills in both striking and grappling.

  • Ricky Turcios is unpredictable and brings a lot of heart to his fights, which can be disruptive.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. to win.

  • Justification: Rosas Jr.’s versatility and skill set give him the upper hand in this matchup.

  • Expected Value: Medium +EV, recommended bet size: 2 units.

Fight 13: Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby

  • DraftKings Odds: Reyes +190, Jacoby -230

  • Pinnacle Odds: Reyes +190, Jacoby -226

Fighter Analysis:

  • Dominick Reyes has faced top-tier opponents and has powerful striking capabilities.

  • Dustin Jacoby has a strong kickboxing background and has been consistent in his performances.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Dustin Jacoby to win.

  • Justification: Jacoby's consistency and striking ability should give him the edge over Reyes.

  • Expected Value: Low +EV, recommended bet size: 1.5 units.

Fight 14: Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov

  • DraftKings Odds: Cannonier +102, Imavov -122

  • Pinnacle Odds: Cannonier +103, Imavov -118

Fighter Analysis:

  • Jared Cannonier is known for his power and resilience in the octagon.

  • Nassourdine Imavov brings a technical approach with a strong grappling game.

Prediction:

  • Pick: Jared Cannonier to win.

  • Justification: This is a closely matched fight, but Cannonier’s experience and power might just tip the scales in his favor.

  • Expected Value: High +EV, recommended bet size: 3 units.

📅 Stay Tuned!

Stay tuned for more insights and predictions in our next newsletter. Until then, keep your guard up and your bets smart!

Remember to always bet responsibly and enjoy the thrill of the fight! Betting involves risks, and you should only bet what you can afford to lose. All predictions and advice provided are for entertainment purposes only and do not guarantee any financial gains. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from professional services.

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